Economic growth forecasts paint cautiously optimistic picture for Calgary housing market
Calgary’s housing market lives and breathes based on the whims of the city’s overall economy.
While the city had an impressive gain of 6.9 per cent in economic growth in 2017 compared to 2016, according to the Conference Board of Canada, the economic engine will slow down this year and in 2019.
Calgary’s housing market showing signs of stability, but the road to a full recovery will take time.
If Calgary’s housing market was a hospital patient, it would have been in intensive care for the last year. Today, though, the patient is showing signs of serious recovery.
First quarter data for 2017 from the CREB®, released earlier this month, reveals the market could be entering a period of stability in which supply and demand are essentially balancing out in the detached sector of the market.
“When we talk about recovery, we have to differentiate the marketplace conditions because there are two segments facing different prospects,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB®.
Warm weather brings indications of spring market to city
Following the second warmest February on record, the warm, sunny snow-free conditions emblematic of a spring housing market are already on display in our city. And while Calgary’s housing market hasn’t yet fully emerged from the doldrums, there are at least some signs of life.
With double-digit declines being the norm in 2015 for year-over-year sales, including several months of declines in excess of 25 per cent, the first two months of 2016 have seen the decline lessen.
Since October 2015, when year-over-year sales in the city fell by 33.2 per cent according to CREB®, Calgary’s housing market has seen those declines lessen to 28.7 per cent in November, 18.1 per cent in December, 12.6 percent in January 2016 with February seeing the first single-digit decline in the city since December of 2014.
By the numbers
Deciphering all the information coming out of Calgary’s housing market can be difficult at the best of times. And with the number of homes changing hands under more scrutiny than ever, it’s a good time to dig a little deeper.
CREB®Now takes a look at five figures surrounding Calgary’s housing market.
$7.9 billion
Through the first 10 months of 2015, the total value of Calgary homes sold in the city sits at 7.9 billion. While still a staggering figure, the number is already $3 billion shy of the value of homes sold through the first 10 months last year, a drop of 39.2 per cent.
Supply gain in apartment sector threatens to impact price
Declines in residential housing sales activity eased in July, creating, when combined with stable inventory levels, no change to the month-over-month price.
Year-over-year sales fell by 14 per cent to 1,995 units in July, compared to a 17.8 per cent decrease the previous month. Despite the decline, sales activity during the month was consistent with the 10-year average.
While sales decline eased, so too did the decline in new listings, causing the unadjusted sales-to-new listings ratio to edge down to 67 per cent in July and months of supply to increase to 2.53 months.