Transition talk

Calgary housing market to see increased stability, signs of change in 2017: CREB®

The worst might be over for Calgary’s housing market, according to CREB®, which is forecasting transitional conditions throughout this year on the back of renewed optimism in the oil patch.

The forecast, captured in the real estate organization’s 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Forecast report, comes after more than two years of recessionary conditions that have been manifested by sales and price declines in virtually every corner of the local market.

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Bottoms up

After a tough year for the ‘other half’ of Calgary’s real estate market, the city’s apartment/attached segments are expected to see gradual turnaround in 2017

Lower prices and added choices created buyers’ conditions in Calgary’s attached and apartment sectors in 2016. But a slow recovery is expected in 2017, bringing both sectors into better balance, says CREB®’s 2017 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

The degree to which they’ll the “other half” will get there will differ, however. While the attached sector is set to post positive overall numbers, apartment sales and prices will be moderated by persistently high inventory levels.

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Listing leverage

Price declines being moderated by lack of listing activity, say experts

The numbers don’t lie, but they can be misleading.

Calgary’s real estate market so far this year has continued a pattern of year-over-year declines that was first set early in 2015.

According to CREB®, sales decreased by more than 10 per cent up to the end of July from the same time last year.

Yet, perhaps surprising, is the benchmark price is down just 3.7 per cent.

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Prices and population

Fewer newcomers will mean weaker housing demand, lower prices, say experts

Fewer newcomers to our city will translate into weaker housing demand and lower housing prices for the foreseeable future, say housing experts.

According to the City of Calgary’s 2016 census released last month, more than 6,500 people left the city between April 2016 and April 2015. The 4,256 population jump to 1.235 million was primarily attributed to an increase of births versus deaths.

“Not surprisingly, the overall impact of lower population growth in Calgary will weigh on its real estate market,” said ATB Financial economist Nick Ford. “Housing prices may continue to slide lower in all areas of the city as a result of declining demand.

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55 Years of Real Estate: 2014 CREB® president Bill Kirk

Signs of economic hardship started to reveal themselves by the end of 2014, recalled then-CREB® president Bill Kirk 

While the true severity of the economic slump currently dominating headlines had yet to been felt in 2014, Bill Kirk said the writing was already on the wall by the end of his tenure as CREB® president.

Oil production in the Middle East had just started to ramp up, prices for a barrel had started to fall and jobs in Calgary were suddenly in question, he recalled.

“By the end of 2014, there was talk of an oil glut,” said Kirk. “We knew there would be fallout … (but) no one knew what would happen.

“We were all surprised at how slowly through 2015 the bad news hit.”

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