After several years of sluggish economic activity, population growth has settled in at 1.5 per cent, comparable to growth rates in the rest of the country, but only half of the levels recorded prior to the decline in the energy sector. With no change expected in the economic climate, growth is expected to remain at this slower pace as we move into 2020.
Migration and population figures are based on the annual civic census results measured in April of each year Source: Civic Census, City of Calgary Corporate EconomicsThe main contributor to the slower growth has been lower net-migration levels. Those levels remain positive, with more than 9,000 net migrants coming to the city in 2019, but this is less than half the number of people that came to the city annually from 2011 – 2015. There has also been a shift in the type of migrants, with most of them expected to be coming from international sources.
The slower growth, combined with a shift in the type of migrants, is not expected to cause any significant changes in ownership demand this year. However, as international migrants tend to have more of an impact on the rental markets than interprovincial migrants, we could continue to see reductions in rental vacancy rates, helping support improving rental rates and reductions in the overall housing supply.